RCGP Research & Surveillance Centre Quinquagenarian Analysis V1.0
Research type
Research Study
Full title
Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research & Surveillance Centre (RSC) quinquagenarian analysis
IRAS ID
328833
Contact name
Simon de Lusignan
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
University of Oxford (Research Governance, Ethics and Assurance)
Duration of Study in the UK
0 years, 9 months, 0 days
Research summary
Seasonal circulation of influenza occurs every winter in England, generally lasting between 8 to 12 weeks with peaks around Christmas, though timing varies considerably. Using historical surveillance data from the Weekly Returns Service, Fleming and Elliot reported very high epidemic levels of influenza-like illness(ILI) in the 1970s, followed by less severe epidemics in winters thereafter, and a gradual decline in severity and frequency particularly after 1990. This decline is unexplained but mostly occurred well before routine vaccination of the elderly was established in 2000/2001.
There are a range of factors that play a role in the variation in ILI incidence. There is substantial weekly/monthly variation in ILI incidence between the peak and baseline periods, and seasonal variation depending on the dominant influenza types/subtypes/strains in circulation. A better understanding of the long-term trends of ILI incidence will allow better forecasting of future epidemics, and can guide prevention strategies and policies. Moreover, creating a linked dataset of ILI cases with virology confirmed cases can transform archived inaccessible data into standard searchable formats, forming a unique longitudinal resource can be used for both retrospective and prospective research.
Our research aims are:
1)Investigate whether the gradual decline in ILI incidence continued through the last 15 years and then look at factors that may explain ILI incidence changes:
a. Analyse different influenza (sub) types, vaccine uptake uptake by age, proportion of individuals in risk groups, demographic and clinical factors etc.
b. Analyse the co-occurrence of different illnesses in the same season and how it affects the severe outcome? Also, does the timing of these occurrence make a difference on hospital pressures?2)Create a linked cohort of individuals for whom there is virology testing data, and analyse the following:
a. Investigate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine (VE).
b. To estimate the incidence of adverse events of interest (AEIs) after receiving their influenza vaccinations.REC name
North East - Newcastle & North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
23/NE/0155
Date of REC Opinion
24 Aug 2023
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion