Predicting relapse after psychological therapy
Research type
Research Study
Full title
Predicting depression and anxiety relapse 6 months after completing6 months’ post-treatment in low intensity, high intensity and combination psychological therapy
IRAS ID
224404
Contact name
Jaime Delgadillo
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
Humber NHS Foundation Trust
Duration of Study in the UK
0 years, 6 months, 25 days
Research summary
The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) reviewed guidelines in the last 10 years for depression and anxiety treatment (NICE, 2007a, 2007b, 2010, 2011), calling for a stepped care system within mental health treatment. Part of this system are low and high intensity psychological interventions which differ in duration, complexity and delivery methods.These methods are all based on cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) principles. However, questions are raised about the long-term, clinical and cost effectiveness of this stepped care system. If patients are likely to relapse post-treatment then re-referrals will cost the National Health Service (NHS) more time and money in the future. Reducing dropout rates will also be beneficial as high dropout rates show a relationship with poor outcomes (Clark et al., 2009; Richards & Borglin, 2011). It is evident that recognising individuals that are likely to relapse/dropout will aid the efficacy of the stepped care system.
The study will be an analysis of cohort data from the East Riding NHS Primary Care Mental Health Service with approximately 1000 cases. Participants will be patients who accessed a course of low intensity psychological therapy, high intensity or a combination within the NHS for depression and/or anxiety disorders. The primary objective of the study is to investigate post-treatment recovery and relapse rate at 6-months follow up after completion of therapy. Further objectives include investigating factors that predict recovery/relapse; investigating predictors of treatment completion/dropout and profiling patient groups that are likely to require relapse prevention interventions. Using the data obtained from the NHS, data analysis will produce estimated proportions of patients who relapse and those who remain well at 6-months post-treatment and an equation to predict individuals who will relapse using various clinical and demographic variables.
REC name
Wales REC 7
REC reference
17/WA/0063
Date of REC Opinion
8 Mar 2017
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion