Palliative Care: Clinicians’ EstimateS (P:CES)

  • Research type

    Research Study

  • Full title

    Improving the accuracy of health care professionals’ predictions about clinical outcomes

  • IRAS ID

    143577

  • Contact name

    Nicola White

  • Contact email

    p.stone@ucl.ac.uk

  • Sponsor organisation

    St George's University of London

  • Research summary

    Doctors and nurses are inaccurate at predicting survival in patients. This lack of accuracy and consistency can have adverse consequences for patients and their families. Inaccurate prognoses can lead (for example) to delays in access to palliative care services, to patients dying in acute hospitals when they would rather die at home, to delays in access to NHS continuing care funding, and can cause psychological distress to patients and their carers.

    This study has been developed in response to a recent independent report (“More Care, Less Pathway”) which made many recommendations about how to improve the care of the dying. In particular the report highlighted the need for more evidence-based research when clinicians give a prognosis due to the distress inaccuracy causes not only for the patient and their family, but for the clinicians too.

    The aim of this study is to identify a group clinicians who are most accurate, or “experts”, at predicting outcomes.

    To do this, we will create a series of anonymous case histories, or “vignettes”, which represent real patients who have been referred to palliative care services. Palliative Care Clinicians will then be asked, via electronic survey, to provide a prognosis for each vignette.

    The vignettes will help to test any future training interventions designed to improve outcome prediction. The expert population will be able to help us understand what factors clinicians should look at when formulating a prognosis.

  • REC name

    West Midlands - Coventry & Warwickshire Research Ethics Committee

  • REC reference

    14/WM/0121

  • Date of REC Opinion

    9 May 2014

  • REC opinion

    Favourable Opinion