Modelling labour induction timing in prolonged pregnancy (V1)
Research type
Research Study
Full title
Modelling parity*-specific timing of labour induction in prolonged pregnancy (* parity refers to the number of children a woman has had)
IRAS ID
134402
Contact name
Paul Taylor
Contact email
Research summary
Around 10% of pregnant UK women undergo induction of labour for (the prevention of) prolonged pregnancy, defined by the World Health Organisation as pregnancy extending beyond 42 weeks. Prolonged pregnancy is associated with an increase in risk of perinatal mortality but labour induction also carries risks and is associated with a less positive birth experience.
This study will use modelling techniques from operational research to investigate if the timing of induction can be optimised by taking into account if women have had a baby before (parity), balanced against any increase in risks. Parity influences when women are likely to go into labour spontaneously, and how long the induction process is likely to take if labour is induced. Risks also vary, with women expecting their first baby at greater risk of stillbirth, but also of unsuccessful induction and caesarean section. In line with NICE guidelines, most maternity services in the UK offer induction between 41 and 42 weeks of gestation, but exact timing varies and parity is not taken into account.
Data on induction to birth interval, gestation and parity will be gathered from the maternity records of women who gave birth after 41 weeks at a large maternity unit in the South West of England, and the extensive literature on the subject will be reviewed for data on risks and natural length of gestation. A spreadsheet model will be developed iteratively, with continuous testing of model output against observed data to ensure an accurate and valid model. The results of using different induction timings will be tested for significant differences in their effect on number of inductions, length of induction process, mode of birth and baby outcomes.
The dissertation fee for this study (to be completed by 31/01/2014) is covered by a Florence Nightingale Foundation research scholarship.
REC name
East Midlands - Leicester Central Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
13/EM/0356
Date of REC Opinion
9 Sep 2013
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion