Impact of COVID-19 on cancer outcomes
Research type
Research Study
Full title
Modelling the impact of delayed cancer diagnosis and delayed treatment on stage progression at diagnosis, survival, and demand for diagnostic and treatment services in England due to COVID-19
IRAS ID
284291
Contact name
Nora Pashayan
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
University College London
Duration of Study in the UK
1 years, 0 months, 1 days
Research summary
Context and rationale
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The ongoing pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), has rapidly reshaped health services worldwide, and disrupted diagnostic, assessment and treatment pathways for cancer, including population-wide screening services.Disruptive non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 are expected to be necessary for approximately 6-12 months. Consequently, it is unclear when cancer services will be able to resume their full diagnostic and treatment services.
Understanding the impact of delayed diagnoses and delayed treatment on cancer outcomes and demand for diagnosis, treatment and screening services is vital for mitigating harms, service re-design and planning. This project is designed to support the planning and management of cancer services in the context of COVID-19.
Aims and objectives
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1. Estimate what impact delayed diagnosis and delayed treatment will have on: (a) The number of cancers that progress to a more advanced stage by the time they are diagnosed, and (b) cancer-specific survival.2. Model the impact of disruptions to breast cancer screening and identify strategies that could be used when re-starting screening that minimise any harms resulting from such disruption.
3. Predict the demand for cancer diagnostic, treatment, and screening services.
Study design
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Mathematical models will be developed that first analyse the time it takes for specific cancer types to progress between stages. These estimates will then be used to analyse the impact of delays to diagnosis, treatment, and screening services on stage at diagnosis, survival, and demand for cancer services. Finally, alternative scenarios for re-starting breast screening programmes will be considered, and their impacts analysed.This study will model 10 different cancers in adults aged 18 and older in England: lung, colorectal, prostate, breast, pancreatic, oesophageal, liver, bladder, kidney, and ovarian cancers.
There is no specific funding of this research.
REC name
Yorkshire & The Humber - South Yorkshire Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
20/YH/0181
Date of REC Opinion
29 May 2020
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion