CovidCalculator: Estimating the probability of Covid-19 in individuals
Research type
Research Study
Full title
What is the probability that this patient, who presents to a UK hospital, has Covid-19?
IRAS ID
285380
Contact name
George Chapman
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust
Duration of Study in the UK
0 years, 6 months, 1 days
Research summary
UK hospitals, in 2020, are frequently managing patients with the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV2. The associated disease caused by SARS-CoV2 is known as Covid-19. Given the infectious nature of Covid-19, patients with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 are often cared for on specific “cohort“ wards. This is an attempt to minimise the spread of SARS-CoV2 from patients with Covid-19, to those without the disease.\n\nThe aim of this study is to assist front-line clinicians by providing an estimated probability of Covid-19 in those who present to UK hospitals. This information can be used, whilst test results are pending, to assist in decision-making regarding which area of the hospital is most appropriate for the care of an individual.\n\nThe “calculator“ that performs this calculation uses the published Covid-19 incidence data from regions within the united Kingdom as its first input. Added to this are further inputs including symptoms reported, rapidly accessible laboratory data and radiological findings. Using data originally published in the early outbreak to adjust the probability depending on the variety of inputs, the output is an estimation of the probability that the patient will later test positive for SARS-CoV2.\n\nThe calculator is known as the “CovidCalculatorUK“. The present study set out to prospectively examine and validate the output from the CovidCalculatorUK and compare this with initial Covid-19 swab results. In addition the present study will examine the clinicians’ assessments of the probability of Covid-19 in individual patients and the cohorting decisions made during the first wave of Covid-19 in the UK. \n\nThe ultimate aim of this research is to use the available data to assist clinical decision-making during the Covid-19 pandemic. Optimising these early cohorting decisions could help reduce the spread of Covid-19 in UK hospitals.
REC name
Yorkshire & The Humber - Bradford Leeds Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
20/YH/0249
Date of REC Opinion
25 Aug 2020
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion