COVID19: Oxford Study of Predictors of Infectivity (OSPREY) [COVID-19]
Research type
Research Study
Full title
COVID19: Oxford Study of Predictors of Infectivity (OSPREY)
IRAS ID
289529
Contact name
Tim EA Peto
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
University of Oxford / Clinical Trials and Research Governance
Duration of Study in the UK
1 years, 6 months, 1 days
Research summary
Research Summary
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The virus is spread through droplets of saliva or nasal discharge. The disease is easily spread with evidence of viral shedding prior to the onset of symptoms.
Amongst individuals with COVID-19, a small percentage have the ability to spread the virus relatively easily, and these individuals have been colloquially termed “super-spreaders”. However, there is evidence that many individuals have disease that does not appear to be particularly infectious. The risk of transmitting the virus to household contacts has been reported to be as low as 10% (Luo et al, 2020).
Currently, the only means to prevent onward transmission of the virus is through physical isolation. The current recommendations are for an enforced isolation period of 14 days for individuals with exposure to the virus. This is in spite of the fact that the given likelihood of these individuals having been infected is extremely low.
There is a significant negative impact of self-isolation from both a physical and mental health perspective. There is also a large community and economic impact at both a societal and individual level.
To date, there are no reliable measures of a given individual’s infectivity and there is a limited understanding of why some individuals have high infectivity, "super-spreaders", whereas others have non-transmissible disease. Research in this area could enable a more tailored and pragmatic approach to isolation policies, in addition to preventing onward transmission of the virus. This study will consist of questionnaires and longitudinal sampling of individuals with COVID-19 and their contacts to understand COVID-19 infectivity. Developing a greater grasp of infectivity will likely enable a more personalised approach to COVID-19 management as well as limiting further morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. [Study relying on COPI notice]
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The virus is spread through droplets of saliva or nasal discharge. The disease is easily spread with evidence of viral shedding prior to the onset of symptoms.
Amongst individuals with COVID-19, a small percentage have the ability to spread the virus relatively easily, and these individuals have been colloquially termed “super-spreaders”. However, there is evidence that many individuals have disease that does not appear to be particularly infectious. The risk of transmitting the virus to household contacts has been reported to be as low as 10% (Luo et al, 2020).
Currently, the only means to prevent onward transmission of the virus is through physical isolation. The current recommendations are for an enforced isolation period of 14 days for individuals with exposure to the virus. This is in spite of the fact that the given likelihood of these individuals having been infected is extremely low.
There is a significant negative impact of self-isolation from both a physical and mental health perspective. There is also a large community and economic impact at both a societal and individual level.
To date, there are no reliable measures of a given individual’s infectivity and there is a limited understanding of why some individuals have high infectivity, "super-spreaders", whereas others have non-transmissible disease. Research in this area could enable a more tailored and pragmatic approach to isolation policies, in addition to preventing onward transmission of the virus. This study will consist of questionnaires and longitudinal sampling of individuals with COVID-19 and their contacts to understand COVID-19 infectivity. Developing a greater grasp of infectivity will likely enable a more personalised approach to COVID-19 management as well as limiting further morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. [Study relying on COPI notice]
Summary of Results
In our study of nearly 15,000 individuals, we investigated predictors of infectivity, particularly focusing on the effectiveness of lateral flow devices (LFDs) in identifying infectious COVID-19 cases based on viral load. LFDs detect viral antigens, indicating active infection and potential transmission. Our findings underscored a strong correlation between higher viral loads, positive LFD results, and infectivity.
We found that LFDs are advantageous due to their rapid results and ease of use outside traditional lab settings. They demonstrated strengths in capturing individuals during peak infectiousness, crucial for containment efforts. The results of this study helped lead to the widespread use of lateral flow, or rapid tests during the COVID-19 pandemic.In conclusion, our study confirms that LFDs effectively pinpoint individuals with higher viral loads and infectious potential among a diverse population. Their role in early detection and intervention remains crucial for pandemic management, underscoring the importance of ongoing research and optimization in infectious disease response strategies.
REC name
London - West London & GTAC Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
20/HRA/5028
Date of REC Opinion
3 Nov 2020
REC opinion
Further Information Favourable Opinion