ASD Prevalence in North Wales.
Research type
Research Study
Full title
ASD Prevalence in North Wales: Pre-pandemic Demographic Trends (2012-2019) A Census-method Analysis of ASD-specific Clinical Diagnoses.
IRAS ID
327880
Contact name
Dawn Wimpory
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
Bangor University
Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier
241, BCUHB's Project ID for the original Service Evaluation aspect of this project (see weblink above) for which a request to publish data is currently being made through this IRAS application)
Duration of Study in the UK
0 years, 11 months, 31 days
Research summary
Following previous NHS ethics guidance, this application requests ethical permission to publish a statistical analysis of what will otherwise remain this team's ongoing service development work.
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the UK was estimated to cost around £32 billion/yr in 2014, and the number of people diagnosed with ASD has increased markedly since then. Unlike in Scotland and England, published research has not provided a realistic figure for the number of individuals in Wales diagnosed with ASD (ASD prevalence).
In perspective, in 2006, 1 in 83 of 10yr olds in England were estimated to have ASD. By 2022 this figure had risen to 1 in 55, the same value as in Scotland. But, in Wales, the reported prevalence of ASD was only 1 in 200. This latter figure, from the first national all-age study of recorded autism in Wales, is acknowledged by that study’s authors to be non-representative of the real-life situation.
Our proposed research extends our own NHS service development work that implements a system for reporting and recording all ASD diagnoses across Wales’s largest LHB: Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board. From this resource, we can identify trends in the number of ASD diagnoses made annually in North Wales and derive the first realistic prevalence figures for ASD in Wales. We are confident of being able to deliver a more accurate prevalence figure, as our methods capture all NHS and NHS commissioned ASD diagnoses made in North Wales since 01.01.2012.
Publishing an updated prevalence of ASD in Wales in a science journal will allow comparison with other developed countries and contribute to further understanding of autism epidemiology. The data on annual trends and variability in the numbers diagnosed with ASD will provide essential information for cost-effective planning of future ASD services in Wales.
REC name
Wales REC 4
REC reference
24/WA/0055
Date of REC Opinion
15 Feb 2024
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion