A novel risk prediction model in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Research type
Research Database
Full title
Cardiomyopathy Database
IRAS ID
151761
Contact name
Perry Elliott
Contact email
Research summary
A novel risk prediction model in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
REC name
West of Scotland REC 4
REC reference
14/WS/0102
Date of REC Opinion
6 Jun 2014
REC opinion
Further Information Favourable Opinion
Data collection arrangements
The study will use routinely collected parameters from history, pedigree analysis, physical examination, electrocardiogram, ambulatory ECG recording, exercise testing, and echocardiography. The data will be collected from electronic medical records. No additional investigations will be carried out for the study. The data will be anonymised.
Research programme
Study aims a) Development of a novel risk prediction model of atrial fibrillation and stroke in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy Predictor variables will be examined in a univariable model. The linearity assumption will be tested using models that included a quadratic interaction term. Variables violating the linearity assumption will undergo logarithmic transformation prior to their inclusion in the final model. A backward elimination strategy using a 20% significance level will be used to formulate the final model. The assumption of proportional hazards required by the Cox model will be assessed by testing the significance of an interaction term of the predictor variable with the natural logarithm of time. b) Validation of HCM Risk-SCD The observational data will be used to compare observed events to the estimated risk of SCD to assess the accuracy of predictions. Calibration and discrimination measures will be examined. Expected value of results This project will provide new insights in the natural history of HCM and provide important prognostic information that can be used in day to day clinical practice. It will improve identification of patients at risk of developing atrial fibrillation, thromboembolic complications and sudden cardiac death.
Research database title
A novel risk prediction model in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Establishment organisation
University College London Hospitals, The Heart Hospital
Establishment organisation address
16-18 Westmoreland Street
W1G 8PH